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Gurten vs Deutschlandsberger SC — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
8/1/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 1Park21-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Gurten49%
×Draw24%
Deutschlandsberger SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.73
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.21

Gurten creates 43% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 107 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.60

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
Deutschlandsberger SC
1.73

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
73%
Gurten or Deutschlandsberger SC
76%
Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC
51%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
27%
Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
82%
Gurten 2+ goals
52%
Gurten 3+ goals
25%
Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
70%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
34%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
65%
Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gurten scores more
49%
level
24%
Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
27%

Gurten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gurten 2–2 Deutschlandsberger SC

Gurten and Deutschlandsberger SC drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 1, 2025.

The match was played at Park21-Arena in Gurten.