Gurten 1–1 Deutschlandsberger SC: Result & Stats

Gurten

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deutschlandsberger SC

R. Wirth 35'

G. Grubišić 14'

9/29/2020

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 5Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Gurten49%

×Draw24%

Deutschlandsberger SC27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GurtenExpected goals in this matchDeutschlandsberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.24

Gurten

1.73

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.24

Gurten creates 40% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 107 away

1.72

creates per match

1.60

0.88

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Gurten

1.72

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.60

allows per match

Gurten

0.88

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gurten or draw

73%

Gurten or Deutschlandsberger SC

76%

Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC

51%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+

26%

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals

82%

Gurten 2+ goals

52%

Gurten 3+ goals

25%

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals

71%

Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals

35%

Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)

64%

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.88 · 114 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.72 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Gurten defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gurten scores more

49%

level

24%

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more

27%

Gurten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

G. Grubišić

35'

R. Wirth

41'

D. Schroll← S. Prattes

59'

D. Bauer← J. Glasner

74'

R. Kober← N. Tisaj

80'

R. Kienberger← M. Miletić

80'

C. Lipp← L. Kremser

Gurten

Deutschlandsberger

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Madritsch

59'▲D. Bauer←▼J. Glasner

80'▲R. Kienberger←▼M. Miletić

Gurten substitutes

BauerKienbergerÖhlböckDambergerKolb

Manager: C. Meier

41'▲D. Schroll←▼S. Prattes

74'▲R. Kober←▼N. Tisaj

80'▲C. Lipp←▼L. Kremser

Deutschlandsberger SC substitutes

SchrollKoberLippBoßlerPistrich