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Gurten vs ASK Klagenfurt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
5/16/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 27Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Gurten50%
×Draw24%
ASK Klagenfurt26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.73
ASK Klagenfurt
1.17

Gurten creates 48% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 25 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
ASK Klagenfurt
1.52

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
ASK Klagenfurt
1.72

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
74%
Gurten or ASK Klagenfurt
76%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
50%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
27%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
82%
Gurten 2+ goals
52%
Gurten 3+ goals
25%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
69%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
33%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
66%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.73

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gurten scores more
50%
level
24%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
26%

Gurten at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gurten vs ASK Klagenfurt

ASK Klagenfurt beat Gurten 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.