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Guria vs Matchakhela — Liga 3 2024

Guria
Guria
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Matchakhela
Matchakhela
6/13/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guria68%
×Draw17%
Matchakhela15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guria
2.63
Matchakhela
1.16

Guria creates 127% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guria
1.86
Matchakhela
0.87

allows per match

Guria
1.45
Matchakhela
3.40

finishing

Guria+0.00on par
Matchakhela+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guria ↓

Matchakhela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Guria or draw
85%
Guria or Matchakhela
83%
Draw or Matchakhela
32%

Winning margin

Guria wins by 2+
47%
Matchakhela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guria 1+ goals
93%
Guria 2+ goals
73%
Guria 3+ goals
48%
Matchakhela 1+ goals
69%
Matchakhela 2+ goals
32%
Matchakhela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guria (draw refunded)
82%
Matchakhela (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guria at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Matchakhela away — creates 0.87, concedes 3.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guria attack 1.86 + Matchakhela defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.63

Matchakhela attack 0.87 + Guria defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Guria scores more
68%
level
17%
Matchakhela scores more
15%

Guria at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guria vs Matchakhela

Guria beat Matchakhela 3-1 in Liga 3 on June 13, 2024.