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Gundelfingen vs Schwaben Augsburg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Gundelfingen
Gundelfingen
FT
3 – 0
Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
7/30/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 4Schwabenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gundelfingen40%
×Draw25%
Schwaben Augsburg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gundelfingen
1.51
Schwaben Augsburg
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gundelfingen
1.70
Schwaben Augsburg
1.65

allows per match

Gundelfingen
1.20
Schwaben Augsburg
1.32

finishing

Gundelfingen+0.00on par
Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gundelfingen ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gundelfingen or draw
64%
Gundelfingen or Schwaben Augsburg
75%
Draw or Schwaben Augsburg
60%

Winning margin

Gundelfingen wins by 2+
19%
Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gundelfingen 1+ goals
78%
Gundelfingen 2+ goals
44%
Gundelfingen 3+ goals
19%
Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
76%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
41%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)
53%
Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gundelfingen at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gundelfingen attack 1.70 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.51

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Gundelfingen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gundelfingen scores more
40%
level
25%
Schwaben Augsburg scores more
36%

Gundelfingen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gundelfingen vs Schwaben Augsburg

Gundelfingen beat Schwaben Augsburg 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Schwabenstadion in Gundelfingen.