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Gundelfingen vs Rain / Lech — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Gundelfingen
Gundelfingen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rain / Lech
Rain / Lech
8/18/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 7Schwabenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Gundelfingen52%
×Draw23%
Rain / Lech25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gundelfingen
1.80
Rain / Lech
1.16

Gundelfingen creates 55% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gundelfingen
1.70
Rain / Lech
1.12

allows per match

Gundelfingen
1.20
Rain / Lech
1.91

finishing

Gundelfingen+0.00on par
Rain / Lech+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gundelfingen ↓

Rain / Lech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gundelfingen or draw
75%
Gundelfingen or Rain / Lech
77%
Draw or Rain / Lech
48%

Winning margin

Gundelfingen wins by 2+
29%
Rain / Lech wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gundelfingen 1+ goals
83%
Gundelfingen 2+ goals
54%
Gundelfingen 3+ goals
27%
Rain / Lech 1+ goals
69%
Rain / Lech 2+ goals
32%
Rain / Lech 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)
68%
Rain / Lech (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gundelfingen at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Rain / Lech away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gundelfingen attack 1.70 + Rain / Lech defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.80

Rain / Lech attack 1.12 + Gundelfingen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gundelfingen scores more
52%
level
23%
Rain / Lech scores more
25%

Gundelfingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Gundelfingen 1–1 Rain / Lech

Gundelfingen and Rain / Lech drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Schwabenstadion in Gundelfingen.