Gundelfingen 1–5 Nordlingen: Result & Stats

Gundelfingen

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Nordlingen

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Schwabenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gundelfingen45%

×Draw22%

Nordlingen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GundelfingenExpected goals in this matchNordlingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.57

Gundelfingen

1.86

Nordlingen

1.57

Gundelfingen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 66 away

1.70

creates per match

1.95

1.20

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Gundelfingen

1.70

Nordlingen

1.95

allows per match

Gundelfingen

1.20

Nordlingen

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gundelfingen+0.00on par

Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gundelfingen ↓

Nordlingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gundelfingen or draw

67%

Gundelfingen or Nordlingen

78%

Draw or Nordlingen

55%

Winning margin

Gundelfingen wins by 2+

24%

Nordlingen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Gundelfingen 1+ goals

84%

Gundelfingen 2+ goals

55%

Gundelfingen 3+ goals

28%

Nordlingen 1+ goals

79%

Nordlingen 2+ goals

46%

Nordlingen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)

58%

Nordlingen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gundelfingen at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gundelfingen attack 1.70 + Nordlingen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nordlingen attack 1.95 + Gundelfingen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gundelfingen scores more

45%

level

22%

Nordlingen scores more

33%

Gundelfingen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff