Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gundelfingen vs Dachau — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Gundelfingen
Gundelfingen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dachau
Dachau
4/1/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Schwabenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gundelfingen55%
×Draw22%
Dachau23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gundelfingen
1.98
Dachau
1.21

Gundelfingen creates 64% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gundelfingen
1.70
Dachau
1.21

allows per match

Gundelfingen
1.20
Dachau
2.26

finishing

Gundelfingen+0.00on par
Dachau+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gundelfingen ↓

Dachau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gundelfingen or draw
77%
Gundelfingen or Dachau
78%
Draw or Dachau
45%

Winning margin

Gundelfingen wins by 2+
32%
Dachau wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gundelfingen 1+ goals
86%
Gundelfingen 2+ goals
59%
Gundelfingen 3+ goals
31%
Dachau 1+ goals
70%
Dachau 2+ goals
34%
Dachau 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)
70%
Dachau (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gundelfingen at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Dachau away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gundelfingen attack 1.70 + Dachau defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dachau attack 1.21 + Gundelfingen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gundelfingen scores more
55%
level
22%
Dachau scores more
23%

Gundelfingen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Gundelfingen 2–0 Dachau

Gundelfingen beat Dachau 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Schwabenstadion in Gundelfingen.