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Gulf United vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Gulf United
Gulf United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Masafi
Masafi
R. Peniket 44'
L. Monyuytaah 45+1'
A. Radovanovic 13'
2/15/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 20Shabab Al Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gulf United41%
×Draw25%
Masafi35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf United
1.52
Masafi
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Gulf United
1.60
Masafi
1.38

allows per match

Gulf United
1.40
Masafi
1.43

finishing

Gulf United+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf United ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gulf United or draw
65%
Gulf United or Masafi
75%
Draw or Masafi
59%

Winning margin

Gulf United wins by 2+
20%
Masafi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gulf United 1+ goals
78%
Gulf United 2+ goals
45%
Gulf United 3+ goals
20%
Masafi 1+ goals
75%
Masafi 2+ goals
40%
Masafi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gulf United (draw refunded)
54%
Masafi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf United attack 1.60 + Masafi defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Masafi attack 1.38 + Gulf United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gulf United scores more
41%
level
25%
Masafi scores more
35%

Gulf United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gulf United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Radovanovic
44'
R. Peniket
45+1'
L. Monyuytaah
86'
H. Mbega

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gulf United vs Masafi

Masafi beat Gulf United 2-1 in Division 1 on February 15, 2024.

Goals: A. Radovanovic (13'), R. Peniket (44'), L. Monyuytaah (45+1').

The match was played at Shabab Al Ahli Stadium in Dubai.