Gulf United 1–3 Dibba Al-Fujairah: Result & Stats

Gulf United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Dibba Al-Fujairah

10/6/2024

Division 1 · Round 2Dibba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gulf United24%

×Draw23%

Dibba Al-Fujairah53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gulf UnitedExpected goals in this matchDibba Al-Fujairah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.80

Gulf United

1.12

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.80

Dibba Al-Fujairah creates 61% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 61 away

1.47

creates per match

1.95

1.65

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Gulf United

1.47

Dibba Al-Fujairah

1.95

allows per match

Gulf United

1.65

Dibba Al-Fujairah

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gulf United+0.00on par

Dibba Al-Fujairah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf United ↓

Dibba Al-Fujairah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gulf United or draw

47%

Gulf United or Dibba Al-Fujairah

77%

Draw or Dibba Al-Fujairah

76%

Winning margin

Gulf United wins by 2+

9%

Dibba Al-Fujairah wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Gulf United 1+ goals

67%

Gulf United 2+ goals

31%

Gulf United 3+ goals

10%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 1+ goals

83%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 2+ goals

54%

Dibba Al-Fujairah 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Gulf United (draw refunded)

31%

Dibba Al-Fujairah (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf United at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 43 matches

Dibba Al-Fujairah away — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf United attack 1.47 + Dibba Al-Fujairah defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.12

Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 1.95 + Gulf United defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gulf United scores more

24%

level

23%

Dibba Al-Fujairah scores more

53%

Dibba Al-Fujairah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dibba Al-Fujairah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff