Gulf United 2–1 Al Ramms: Result & Stats

Gulf United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al Ramms

10/22/2023

Division 1 · Round 6Shabab Al Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gulf United50%

×Draw23%

Al Ramms27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gulf UnitedExpected goals in this matchAl Ramms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.30

Gulf United

1.83

Al Ramms

1.30

Gulf United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

1.65

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Gulf United

1.47

Al Ramms

0.95

allows per match

Gulf United

1.65

Al Ramms

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gulf United+0.00on par

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf United ↓

Al Ramms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gulf United or draw

73%

Gulf United or Al Ramms

77%

Draw or Al Ramms

50%

Winning margin

Gulf United wins by 2+

28%

Al Ramms wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gulf United 1+ goals

84%

Gulf United 2+ goals

54%

Gulf United 3+ goals

28%

Al Ramms 1+ goals

73%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

37%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Gulf United (draw refunded)

65%

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf United at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 43 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf United attack 1.47 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Gulf United defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gulf United scores more

50%

level

23%

Al Ramms scores more

27%

Gulf United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gulf United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff