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Gulf United vs Al Jazira Al Hamra — Division 1 2018

Gulf United
Gulf United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Jazira Al Hamra
Al Jazira Al Hamra
3/15/2026Division 1Division 1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gulf United44%
×Draw23%
Al Jazira Al Hamra33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf United
1.75
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.48

Gulf United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 73 away

creates per match

Gulf United
1.47
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.32

allows per match

Gulf United
1.65
Al Jazira Al Hamra
2.04

finishing

Gulf United+0.00on par
Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf United ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Gulf United or draw
67%
Gulf United or Al Jazira Al Hamra
77%
Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra
56%

Winning margin

Gulf United wins by 2+
23%
Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gulf United 1+ goals
83%
Gulf United 2+ goals
52%
Gulf United 3+ goals
25%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals
77%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals
43%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gulf United (draw refunded)
57%
Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf United at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.65 · 43 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf United attack 1.47 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.32 + Gulf United defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gulf United scores more
44%
level
23%
Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more
33%

Gulf United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gulf United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gulf United vs Al Jazira Al Hamra

Gulf United and Al Jazira Al Hamra drew 0-0 in Division 1 on March 15, 2026.