Gulf Heroes 1–2 Dubai United: Result & Stats

Gulf Heroes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dubai United

4/22/2024

Division 1 · Round 28Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Gulf Heroes25%

×Draw22%

Dubai United53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gulf HeroesExpected goals in this matchDubai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.00

Gulf Heroes

1.31

Dubai United

2.00

Dubai United creates 53% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 43 away

1.08

creates per match

1.95

2.05

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Gulf Heroes

1.08

Dubai United

1.95

allows per match

Gulf Heroes

2.05

Dubai United

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Dubai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Dubai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw

47%

Gulf Heroes or Dubai United

78%

Draw or Dubai United

75%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+

10%

Dubai United wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals

73%

Gulf Heroes 2+ goals

38%

Gulf Heroes 3+ goals

14%

Dubai United 1+ goals

86%

Dubai United 2+ goals

59%

Dubai United 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)

32%

Dubai United (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Dubai United away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Dubai United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dubai United attack 1.95 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more

25%

level

22%

Dubai United scores more

53%

Dubai United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dubai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff