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Gulf Heroes vs Dibba Al Hisn — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
10/30/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 8Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes21%
×Draw22%
Dibba Al Hisn57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.10
Dibba Al Hisn
1.94

Dibba Al Hisn creates 76% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 86 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Dibba Al Hisn
1.83

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Dibba Al Hisn
1.12

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
43%
Gulf Heroes or Dibba Al Hisn
78%
Draw or Dibba Al Hisn
79%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
8%
Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
67%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
30%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
10%
Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
86%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
58%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
27%
Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
21%
level
22%
Dibba Al Hisn scores more
57%

Dibba Al Hisn at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Gulf Heroes 0–4 Dibba Al Hisn

Dibba Al Hisn beat Gulf Heroes 4-0 in Division 1 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium in Sharjah, Ajman.