Gulf Heroes 0–4 Al Thaid: Result & Stats

Gulf Heroes

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Al Thaid

4/19/2025

Division 1 · Round 24Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes31%

×Draw25%

Al Thaid44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gulf HeroesExpected goals in this matchAl Thaid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.57

Gulf Heroes

1.29

Al Thaid

1.57

Al Thaid creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 100 away

1.08

creates per match

1.10

2.05

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Gulf Heroes

1.08

Al Thaid

1.10

allows per match

Gulf Heroes

2.05

Al Thaid

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al Thaid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw

56%

Gulf Heroes or Al Thaid

75%

Draw or Al Thaid

69%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+

13%

Al Thaid wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals

72%

Gulf Heroes 2+ goals

37%

Gulf Heroes 3+ goals

14%

Al Thaid 1+ goals

79%

Al Thaid 2+ goals

46%

Al Thaid 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)

42%

Al Thaid (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more

31%

level

25%

Al Thaid scores more

44%

Al Thaid at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff