Gulf Heroes 1–0 Al Jazira Al Hamra: Result & Stats

Gulf Heroes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1/20/2024

Division 1 · Round 17Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes36%

×Draw23%

Al Jazira Al Hamra41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gulf HeroesExpected goals in this matchAl Jazira Al Hamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.69

Gulf Heroes

1.56

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

1.08

creates per match

1.32

2.05

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Gulf Heroes

1.08

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.32

allows per match

Gulf Heroes

2.05

Al Jazira Al Hamra

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw

59%

Gulf Heroes or Al Jazira Al Hamra

77%

Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra

64%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+

17%

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals

79%

Gulf Heroes 2+ goals

46%

Gulf Heroes 3+ goals

21%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

82%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

50%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)

46%

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.32 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more

36%

level

23%

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

41%

Al Jazira Al Hamra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Jazira Al Hamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff