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Gulf Heroes vs Al Hamriyah — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Al Hamriyah
Al Hamriyah
1/10/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 12Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gulf Heroes24%
×Draw23%
Al Hamriyah53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.15
Al Hamriyah
1.82

Al Hamriyah creates 58% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 98 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Al Hamriyah
1.60

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Al Hamriyah
1.22

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al Hamriyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
47%
Gulf Heroes or Al Hamriyah
77%
Draw or Al Hamriyah
76%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
9%
Al Hamriyah wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
68%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
32%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
11%
Al Hamriyah 1+ goals
84%
Al Hamriyah 2+ goals
54%
Al Hamriyah 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
31%
Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al Hamriyah away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Hamriyah attack 1.60 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
24%
level
23%
Al Hamriyah scores more
53%

Al Hamriyah at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gulf Heroes vs Al Hamriyah

Al Hamriyah beat Gulf Heroes 4-0 in Division 1 on January 10, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium in Sharjah, Ajman.