Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gulf Heroes vs Al-Dhafra — Division 1 2018

Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
FT
0 – 3
Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
9/14/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Al Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gulf Heroes23%
×Draw23%
Al-Dhafra54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gulf Heroes
1.13
Al-Dhafra
1.84

Al-Dhafra creates 63% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gulf Heroes
1.08
Al-Dhafra
1.63

allows per match

Gulf Heroes
2.05
Al-Dhafra
1.17

finishing

Gulf Heroes+0.00on par
Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gulf Heroes ↓

Al-Dhafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gulf Heroes or draw
46%
Gulf Heroes or Al-Dhafra
77%
Draw or Al-Dhafra
77%

Winning margin

Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
9%
Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
68%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
31%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
11%
Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
84%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
55%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
30%
Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gulf Heroes at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.05 · 59 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gulf Heroes attack 1.08 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al-Dhafra attack 1.63 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gulf Heroes scores more
23%
level
23%
Al-Dhafra scores more
54%

Al-Dhafra at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gulf Heroes vs Al-Dhafra

Al-Dhafra beat Gulf Heroes 3-0 in Division 1 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Al Dhafra Stadium in Madinat Zaid.