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Guizhou Zhucheng vs Wuhan Three Towns II — League Two 2022

Guizhou Zhucheng
Guizhou Zhucheng
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wuhan Three Towns II
Wuhan Three Towns II
4/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guizhou Zhucheng50%
×Draw28%
Wuhan Three Towns II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhucheng
1.37
Wuhan Three Towns II
0.80

Guizhou Zhucheng creates 71% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhucheng
1.61
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.00

allows per match

Guizhou Zhucheng
0.61
Wuhan Three Towns II
1.13

finishing

Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par
Wuhan Three Towns II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhucheng ↓

Wuhan Three Towns II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhucheng or draw
78%
Guizhou Zhucheng or Wuhan Three Towns II
72%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns II
50%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+
24%
Wuhan Three Towns II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals
75%
Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals
40%
Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals
16%
Wuhan Three Towns II 1+ goals
55%
Wuhan Three Towns II 2+ goals
19%
Wuhan Three Towns II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)
70%
Wuhan Three Towns II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhucheng at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Wuhan Three Towns II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.61 + Wuhan Three Towns II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Wuhan Three Towns II attack 1.00 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guizhou Zhucheng scores more
50%
level
28%
Wuhan Three Towns II scores more
22%

Guizhou Zhucheng at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guizhou Zhucheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhucheng vs Wuhan Three Towns II

Guizhou Zhucheng beat Wuhan Three Towns II 3-1 in League Two on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.