Guizhou Zhicheng 2–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

6/15/2019

League One · Round 13Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng40%

×Draw25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.32

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.44

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.47

1.18

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.47

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

65%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

75%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

60%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

19%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

76%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

42%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

18%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

73%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

38%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

54%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.47 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

40%

level

25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

35%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff