Guizhou Zhicheng 3–1 Shandong Luneng

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shandong Luneng

8/18/2018

Super League · Round 19Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng30%

×Draw24%

Shandong Luneng46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.72

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.35

Shandong Luneng

1.72

Shandong Luneng creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 122 away

1.27

creates per match

1.77

1.67

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

Shandong Luneng

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

54%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Shandong Luneng

76%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

70%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

13%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

74%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

39%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

15%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

82%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

51%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

40%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

30%

level

24%

Shandong Luneng scores more

46%

Shandong Luneng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff