Guizhou Zhicheng 1–0 Meizhou Meixian Techand

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Meizhou Meixian Techand

7/27/2019

League One · Round 19Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng45%

×Draw25%

Meizhou Meixian Techand30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Meixian Techand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.25

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.58

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.25

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 26% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.33

1.18

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.33

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

70%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Meizhou Meixian Techand

75%

Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand

55%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

23%

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

79%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

47%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

21%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals

71%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals

36%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

60%

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.58

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

45%

level

25%

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more

30%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff