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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Meizhou Kejia — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
10/3/2020League OneLeague One · Round 7Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng37%
×Draw26%
Meizhou Kejia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.34
Meizhou Kejia
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 63 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Meizhou Kejia
1.49

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Meizhou Kejia
1.38

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
63%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Meizhou Kejia
74%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
63%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
17%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
15%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
74%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
38%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
50%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
37%
level
26%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
37%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Meizhou Kejia

Meizhou Kejia beat Guizhou Zhicheng 1-0 in League One on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium in Wuhua.