Guizhou Zhicheng 0–0 Jiangxi Liansheng

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jiangxi Liansheng

7/22/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 3Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng46%

×Draw26%

Jiangxi Liansheng28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchJiangxi Liansheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.06

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.45

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.06

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 37% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 73 away

1.30

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.95

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

72%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Jiangxi Liansheng

74%

Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng

54%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

23%

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

77%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

42%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

18%

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

65%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

29%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

62%

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

46%

level

26%

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

28%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff