Guizhou Zhicheng 2–3 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hebei Zhongji

3/11/2018

Super League · Round 2Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng49%

×Draw23%

Hebei Zhongji28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.30

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.80

Hebei Zhongji

1.30

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 67 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

1.67

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

72%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Hebei Zhongji

77%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

51%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

27%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

83%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

54%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

27%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

73%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

37%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

64%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

49%

level

23%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

28%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff