Guizhou Zhicheng 2–9 Chengdu Better City

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

2 – 9

HT: 0 – 5

Chengdu Better City

12/21/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 24Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng24%

×Draw24%

Chengdu Better City52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.67

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.06

Chengdu Better City

1.67

Chengdu Better City creates 58% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 24 away

1.30

creates per match

2.17

1.18

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Chengdu Better City

2.17

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Chengdu Better City

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

48%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Chengdu Better City

76%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

76%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

9%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

65%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

29%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

9%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

81%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

50%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

32%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Chengdu Better City attack 2.17 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

24%

level

24%

Chengdu Better City scores more

52%

Chengdu Better City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff