Guizhou Zhicheng 3–1 BIT: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

BIT

6/10/2021

League One · Round 10Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng59%

×Draw23%

BIT18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchBIT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.83

BIT

0.91

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 101% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 35 away

1.30

creates per match

0.63

1.18

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

BIT

0.63

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

BIT

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

BIT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

82%

Guizhou Zhicheng or BIT

77%

Draw or BIT

41%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

34%

BIT wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

84%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

54%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

28%

BIT 1+ goals

60%

BIT 2+ goals

23%

BIT 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

76%

BIT (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

BIT away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + BIT defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

BIT attack 0.63 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

59%

level

23%

BIT scores more

18%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff