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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
6/29/2019League OneLeague One · Round 15Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng44%
×Draw26%
Beijing Baxy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.43
Beijing Baxy
1.13

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 71 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
70%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Beijing Baxy
74%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
56%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
21%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
76%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
42%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
17%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
68%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
31%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
60%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
44%
level
26%
Beijing Baxy scores more
30%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Beijing Baxy

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Beijing Baxy 2-0 in League One on June 29, 2019.

The match was played at Qiannan Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Qiannan.