Guingamp W 3–4 Saint-Étienne W: Result & Stats

Guingamp W

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Saint-Étienne W

A. Péniguel 62', 11'

S. Cambot 1'

S. Champagnac 81'

A. Lamontagne 64'

P. Browne 41'

N. Carage 35'

3/30/2024

Feminine Division 1 · Round 19Stade Centre Formation EAG 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Guingamp W51%

×Draw22%

Saint-Étienne W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guingamp WExpected goals in this matchSaint-Étienne W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.40

Guingamp W

1.98

Saint-Étienne W

1.40

Guingamp W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 44 away

1.34

creates per match

0.77

2.03

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Guingamp W

1.34

Saint-Étienne W

0.77

allows per match

Guingamp W

2.03

Saint-Étienne W

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp W+0.00on par

Saint-Étienne W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp W ↓

Saint-Étienne W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Guingamp W or draw

73%

Guingamp W or Saint-Étienne W

78%

Draw or Saint-Étienne W

49%

Winning margin

Guingamp W wins by 2+

29%

Saint-Étienne W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guingamp W 1+ goals

86%

Guingamp W 2+ goals

59%

Guingamp W 3+ goals

31%

Saint-Étienne W 1+ goals

75%

Saint-Étienne W 2+ goals

41%

Saint-Étienne W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Guingamp W (draw refunded)

65%

Saint-Étienne W (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.03 · 76 matches

Saint-Étienne W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp W attack 1.34 + Saint-Étienne W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.98

Saint-Étienne W attack 0.77 + Guingamp W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Guingamp W scores more

51%

level

22%

Saint-Étienne W scores more

27%

Guingamp W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Guingamp W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

S. Cambot

Guingamp W · F

9.3

Match Events

1'

S. Cambot↳ A. Stárová

11'

A. Péniguel↳ S. Cambot

14'

19'

35'

38'

39'

P. Browne← A. Pierre-Louis

41'

P. Browne

46'

Y. Balogun← M. Gignoux-Soulier

55'

A. Traoré← A. Donnary

62'

A. Péniguel↳ S. Cambot

64'

A. Lamontagne

74'

Chloé Tapia

78'

S. Bhandari← L. Teinturier

78'

M. Léger← S. Cambot

80'

H. Dowd← A. Lamontagne

81'

S. Champagnac↳ C. Caputo

89'

A. Mbadi← S. Champagnac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampSaint-Étienne

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots11

4Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target4

8Off Target3

0Blocked4

10Inside Box10

5Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

303Total Passes432

207Accurate Passes324

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp W vs Saint-Étienne W

Saint-Étienne W beat Guingamp W 4-3 in Feminine Division 1 on March 30, 2024.

Goals: S. Cambot (1'), A. Péniguel (11', 62'), N. Carage (35'), P. Browne (41'), A. Lamontagne (64'), S. Champagnac (81').

Saint-Étienne W controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Centre Formation EAG 1 in Pabu.

Guingamp W vs Saint-Étienne W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Guingamp W vs Saint-Étienne W