Guingamp W 1–1 Issy W: Result & Stats

Guingamp W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Issy W

S. Daoudi 55'

A. Fourré 62'

10/16/2021

Feminine Division 1 · Round 6Stade Centre Formation EAG 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guingamp W55%

×Draw21%

Issy W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guingamp WExpected goals in this matchIssy W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.30

Guingamp W

2.08

Issy W

1.30

Guingamp W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 22 away

1.35

creates per match

0.55

2.05

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Guingamp W

1.35

Issy W

0.55

allows per match

Guingamp W

2.05

Issy W

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp W+0.00on par

Issy W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp W ↓

Issy W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Guingamp W or draw

76%

Guingamp W or Issy W

79%

Draw or Issy W

45%

Winning margin

Guingamp W wins by 2+

33%

Issy W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guingamp W 1+ goals

87%

Guingamp W 2+ goals

61%

Guingamp W 3+ goals

34%

Issy W 1+ goals

73%

Issy W 2+ goals

37%

Issy W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guingamp W (draw refunded)

70%

Issy W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp W at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.05 · 75 matches

Issy W away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp W attack 1.35 + Issy W defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.08

Issy W attack 0.55 + Guingamp W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guingamp W scores more

55%

level

21%

Issy W scores more

24%

Guingamp W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guingamp W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

C. Barclais

46'

A. Péniguel← E. Guillois

55'

S. Daoudi↳ M. Le Mouël

59'

A. Fourré← A. Thornton

62'

A. Fourré

69'

M. De Carvalho← S. Bayo

77'

N. Richard← L. Teinturier

86'

A. Donnary

86'

A. Donnary← B. Louis

89'

D. Diaby← M. Le Mouël

Guingamp

Issy

16

28

8

25

26

▼

21

19

23

20

▼

Thornton

11

Machart-R

7

▼

1

19

2

5

3

▼

Guillois

20

▼

Teinturie

6

⚽

Daoudi

15

A

▼

10

11

9

Manager: F. Biancalani

46'▲A. Péniguel←▼E. Guillois

77'▲N. Richard←▼L. Teinturier

89'▲D. Diaby←▼M. Le Mouël

Guingamp W substitutes

13Péniguel23Richard7Diaby12Martin29Coquil40Dufrien

Manager: C. Vaz

59'▲A. Fourré←▼A. Thornton

69'▲M. De Carvalho←▼S. Bayo

86'▲A. Donnary←▼B. Louis

Issy W substitutes

18Fourré24Carvalho6Donnary17Labois5Sancy14Thomas1Rowswell

Feminine Division 1: Guingamp W 1–1 Issy W

Guingamp W and Issy W drew 1-1 in Feminine Division 1 on October 16, 2021.

Goals: S. Daoudi (55'), A. Fourré (62').

The match was played at Stade Centre Formation EAG 1 in Pabu.

Guingamp W vs Issy W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Feminine Division 1: Guingamp W 1–1 Issy W