Guingamp 3–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Valenciennes

2/11/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Guingamp45%

×Draw27%

Valenciennes28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Guingamp

1.40

Valenciennes

1.04

Guingamp creates 35% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 109 away

1.39

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Guingamp

1.39

Valenciennes

0.90

allows per match

Guingamp

1.19

Valenciennes

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

72%

Guingamp or Valenciennes

73%

Draw or Valenciennes

55%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

22%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

75%

Guingamp 2+ goals

41%

Guingamp 3+ goals

17%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

65%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

28%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

62%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guingamp scores more

45%

level

27%

Valenciennes scores more

28%

Guingamp at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff