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Guingamp vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Rodez
Rodez
1/23/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Guingamp42%
×Draw27%
Rodez32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.36
Rodez
1.15

Guingamp creates 18% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 124 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.39
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Guingamp
1.19
Rodez
1.33

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
68%
Guingamp or Rodez
73%
Draw or Rodez
58%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
19%
Rodez wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
74%
Guingamp 2+ goals
39%
Guingamp 3+ goals
16%
Rodez 1+ goals
68%
Rodez 2+ goals
32%
Rodez 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
57%
Rodez (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Rodez defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rodez attack 1.11 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guingamp scores more
42%
level
27%
Rodez scores more
32%

Guingamp at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Rodez

Guingamp and Rodez drew 3-3 in Ligue 2 on January 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.