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Guingamp vs Paris FC — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paris FC
Paris FC
12/2/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Guingamp39%
×Draw28%
Paris FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.23
Paris FC
1.12

Guingamp creates 10% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 128 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.39
Paris FC
1.05

allows per match

Guingamp
1.19
Paris FC
1.08

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Paris FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Paris FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
67%
Guingamp or Paris FC
72%
Draw or Paris FC
61%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
17%
Paris FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
71%
Guingamp 2+ goals
35%
Guingamp 3+ goals
13%
Paris FC 1+ goals
67%
Paris FC 2+ goals
31%
Paris FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
54%
Paris FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Paris FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Paris FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Paris FC attack 1.05 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guingamp scores more
39%
level
28%
Paris FC scores more
33%

Guingamp at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Paris FC

Paris FC beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.