Guingamp 0–1 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Niort

P. Bâ 39'

8/22/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Guingamp48%

×Draw26%

Niort26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.01

Guingamp

1.47

Niort

1.01

Guingamp creates 46% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 93 away

1.39

creates per match

0.84

1.19

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Guingamp

1.39

Niort

0.84

allows per match

Guingamp

1.19

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

74%

Guingamp or Niort

74%

Draw or Niort

52%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

24%

Niort wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

77%

Guingamp 2+ goals

43%

Guingamp 3+ goals

18%

Niort 1+ goals

64%

Niort 2+ goals

27%

Niort 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

65%

Niort (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.47

Niort attack 0.84 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guingamp scores more

48%

level

26%

Niort scores more

26%

Guingamp at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

O. Kemen

Niort · M

8.5

Match Events

5'

Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni

39'

P. Bâ↳ O. Kemen

46'

R. Rodelin← J. Livolant

53'

Dylan Louiserre

54'

G. Fofana← L. Carnot

63'

L. Ndenbe← Pedro Rebocho

64'

Sikou Niakate

64'

P. Ntep← B. Pelé

64'

Y. Bourhane← B. Doukansy

78'

J. Mellot← S. Niakaté

78'

D. Djigla← D. Louiserre

89'

L. Ameka← V. Jacob

89'

A. Baroan← G. Koyalipou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuingampNiort

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots14

5Corners4

17Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target4

6Off Target9

2Blocked1

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

465Total Passes318

365Accurate Passes217

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Ligue 2: Guingamp 0–1 Niort

Niort beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 22, 2020.

Goals: P. Bâ (39').

Guingamp controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.

Guingamp vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Guingamp 0–1 Niort