Guingamp 1–0 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Guingamp

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estac Troyes

1/24/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade de Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Guingamp37%

×Draw28%

Estac Troyes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuingampExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.17

Guingamp

1.19

Estac Troyes

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 105 away

1.39

creates per match

1.14

1.19

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Guingamp

1.39

Estac Troyes

1.14

allows per match

Guingamp

1.19

Estac Troyes

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw

64%

Guingamp or Estac Troyes

72%

Draw or Estac Troyes

63%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+

15%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals

70%

Guingamp 2+ goals

33%

Guingamp 3+ goals

12%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

69%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

33%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)

51%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.39 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Guingamp defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guingamp scores more

37%

level

28%

Estac Troyes scores more

36%

Guingamp at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff