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Guingamp vs Caen — Coupe de France 2018

Guingamp
Guingampadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caen
Caen
12/22/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Guingamp20%
×Draw21%
Caen59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.12
Caen
2.06

Caen creates 84% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.00
Caen
2.41

allows per match

Guingamp
1.71
Caen
1.24

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
41%
Guingamp or Caen
79%
Draw or Caen
80%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
8%
Caen wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
67%
Guingamp 2+ goals
31%
Guingamp 3+ goals
10%
Caen 1+ goals
87%
Caen 2+ goals
61%
Caen 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
26%
Caen (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Caen away — creates 2.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.00 + Caen defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Caen attack 2.41 + Guingamp defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guingamp scores more
20%
level
21%
Caen scores more
59%

Caen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Guingamp 2–1 Caen

Guingamp beat Caen 2-1 in Coupe de France on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.