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Guineueta vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Guineueta
Guineueta
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Girona II
Girona II
4/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Centre Esportiu de La Guineueta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Guineueta22%
×Draw26%
Girona II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guineueta
0.90
Girona II
1.55

Girona II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 78 away

creates per match

Guineueta
0.88
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

Guineueta
1.88
Girona II
0.91

finishing

Guineueta+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guineueta ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guineueta or draw
47%
Guineueta or Girona II
74%
Draw or Girona II
78%

Winning margin

Guineueta wins by 2+
7%
Girona II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Guineueta 1+ goals
59%
Guineueta 2+ goals
23%
Guineueta 3+ goals
6%
Girona II 1+ goals
79%
Girona II 2+ goals
46%
Girona II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Guineueta (draw refunded)
29%
Girona II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guineueta at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guineueta attack 0.88 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Girona II attack 1.23 + Guineueta defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guineueta scores more
22%
level
26%
Girona II scores more
53%

Girona II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Guineueta 1–4 Girona II

Girona II beat Guineueta 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Centre Esportiu de La Guineueta in Barcelona.