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Guineueta vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Guineueta
Guineueta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Castelldefels
Castelldefels
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Centre Esportiu de La Guineueta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Guineueta27%
×Draw26%
Castelldefels47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guineueta
1.06
Castelldefels
1.48

Castelldefels creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 74 away

creates per match

Guineueta
0.88
Castelldefels
1.07

allows per match

Guineueta
1.88
Castelldefels
1.24

finishing

Guineueta+0.00on par
Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guineueta ↓

Castelldefels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guineueta or draw
53%
Guineueta or Castelldefels
74%
Draw or Castelldefels
73%

Winning margin

Guineueta wins by 2+
10%
Castelldefels wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Guineueta 1+ goals
65%
Guineueta 2+ goals
29%
Guineueta 3+ goals
9%
Castelldefels 1+ goals
77%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
43%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Guineueta (draw refunded)
37%
Castelldefels (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guineueta at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guineueta attack 0.88 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Guineueta defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guineueta scores more
27%
level
26%
Castelldefels scores more
47%

Castelldefels at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Guineueta 1–2 Castelldefels

Castelldefels beat Guineueta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Centre Esportiu de La Guineueta in Barcelona.