Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guinea W vs Mali W — Friendlies Women 2026

Guinea W
Guinea W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Mali W
Mali W
Unknown 36'
Unknown 62', 49', 40', 24'
5/24/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guinea W23%
×Draw18%
Mali W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea W
1.63
Mali W
2.67

Mali W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Guinea W
2.00
Mali W
2.00

allows per match

Guinea W
3.33
Mali W
1.25

finishing

Guinea W+0.00on par
Mali W+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea W ↓

Mali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Guinea W or draw
41%
Guinea W or Mali W
82%
Draw or Mali W
77%

Winning margin

Guinea W wins by 2+
10%
Mali W wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Guinea W 1+ goals
80%
Guinea W 2+ goals
48%
Guinea W 3+ goals
22%
Mali W 1+ goals
93%
Mali W 2+ goals
74%
Mali W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Guinea W (draw refunded)
28%
Mali W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Mali W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea W attack 2.00 + Mali W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mali W attack 2.00 + Guinea W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Guinea W scores more
23%
level
18%
Mali W scores more
59%

Mali W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
36'
40'
49'
62'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guinea W vs Mali W

Mali W beat Guinea W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on May 24, 2025.

Goals: ? (24', 36', 40', 49', 62').