Guinea W 4–3 Gambia W: Result & Stats

Guinea W

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 0

Gambia W

F. D. Nabe 81', 11'

C. Aminata 45'

K. Sidibe 38'

F. Sonko 90'

F. Jammeh 77'

M. Darboe 55'

5/26/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesStadium of Ksar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guinea W38%

×Draw18%

Gambia W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guinea WExpected goals in this matchGambia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

2.83

Guinea W

2.67

Gambia W

2.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

2.33

3.33

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Guinea W

2.00

Gambia W

2.33

allows per match

Guinea W

3.33

Gambia W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guinea W+0.00on par

Gambia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea W ↓

Gambia W →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–34%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Guinea W or draw

57%

Guinea W or Gambia W

82%

Draw or Gambia W

62%

Winning margin

Guinea W wins by 2+

23%

Gambia W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Guinea W 1+ goals

93%

Guinea W 2+ goals

74%

Guinea W 3+ goals

49%

Gambia W 1+ goals

94%

Gambia W 2+ goals

77%

Gambia W 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Guinea W (draw refunded)

47%

Gambia W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guinea W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Gambia W away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guinea W attack 2.00 + Gambia W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Gambia W attack 2.33 + Guinea W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guinea W scores more

38%

level

18%

Gambia W scores more

43%

Gambia W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gambia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

38'

45'

55'

77'

81'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff