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Guinea vs Togo — Friendlies 2026

Guinea
Guinea
FT
0 – 2
Togo
Togo
6/5/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Antalya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Guinea44%
×Draw26%
Togo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea
1.48
Togo
1.19

Guinea creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Guinea
1.75
Togo
1.30

allows per match

Guinea
1.08
Togo
1.20

finishing

Guinea+0.00on par
Togo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea ↓

Togo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guinea or draw
70%
Guinea or Togo
74%
Draw or Togo
56%

Winning margin

Guinea wins by 2+
21%
Togo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Guinea 1+ goals
77%
Guinea 2+ goals
43%
Guinea 3+ goals
19%
Togo 1+ goals
70%
Togo 2+ goals
33%
Togo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guinea (draw refunded)
59%
Togo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Togo away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea attack 1.75 + Togo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Togo attack 1.30 + Guinea defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guinea scores more
44%
level
26%
Togo scores more
30%

Guinea at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guinea 0 – 2 Togo

Togo beat Guinea 2-0 in Friendlies on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Antalya Stadyumu in Antalya.