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Guinea vs Niger — Friendlies 2026

Guinea
Guinea
FT
2 – 1
Niger
Niger
Ibrahima Conte 71' (pen)
Aguibou Camara 56'
Victorien Adebayor 29'
6/11/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Emirhan Sport Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guinea52%
×Draw25%
Niger23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea
1.59
Niger
0.98

Guinea creates 62% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Guinea
1.75
Niger
0.88

allows per match

Guinea
1.08
Niger
1.44

finishing

Guinea+0.00on par
Niger+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea ↓

Niger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guinea or draw
77%
Guinea or Niger
75%
Draw or Niger
48%

Winning margin

Guinea wins by 2+
27%
Niger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guinea 1+ goals
80%
Guinea 2+ goals
47%
Guinea 3+ goals
21%
Niger 1+ goals
62%
Niger 2+ goals
26%
Niger 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guinea (draw refunded)
69%
Niger (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Niger away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea attack 1.75 + Niger defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.59

Niger attack 0.88 + Guinea defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guinea scores more
52%
level
25%
Niger scores more
23%

Guinea at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Ibrahima Conte
21'
Victorien Adebayor
29'
Victorien Adebayor
56'
Aguibou Camara
71'
Ibrahima ContePenalty
Guinea
Niger
D. Six
Manager: D. Six
H. Doula
Manager: H. Doula

Guinea 2 – 1 Niger

Guinea beat Niger 2-1 in Friendlies on June 11, 2021.

Goals: Victorien Adebayor (29'), Aguibou Camara (56'), Ibrahima Conte (71' pen).

The match was played at Emirhan Sport Center Stadium in Side.