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Guinea vs Madagascar — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Guinea
Guinea
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Madagascar
Madagascar
6/22/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guinea33%
×Draw30%
Madagascar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea
1.00
Madagascar
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guinea
1.00
Madagascar
1.40

allows per match

Guinea
0.75
Madagascar
1.00

finishing

Guinea+0.00on par
Madagascar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea ↓

Madagascar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Guinea or draw
63%
Guinea or Madagascar
70%
Draw or Madagascar
67%

Winning margin

Guinea wins by 2+
12%
Madagascar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guinea 1+ goals
63%
Guinea 2+ goals
26%
Guinea 3+ goals
8%
Madagascar 1+ goals
66%
Madagascar 2+ goals
29%
Madagascar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Guinea (draw refunded)
47%
Madagascar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Madagascar away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea attack 1.00 + Madagascar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Madagascar attack 1.40 + Guinea defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guinea scores more
33%
level
30%
Madagascar scores more
37%

Madagascar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Madagascar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Guinea 2–2 Madagascar

Guinea and Madagascar drew 2-2 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at Alexandria Stadium in Alexandria.