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Guinea vs Burkina Faso — Friendlies 2026

Guinea
Guinea
CANC
12:00
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
7/24/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Guinea50%
×Draw26%
Burkina Faso24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guinea
1.55
Burkina Faso
0.99

Guinea creates 57% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

Guinea
1.75
Burkina Faso
0.90

allows per match

Guinea
1.08
Burkina Faso
1.35

finishing

Guinea+0.00on par
Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea ↓

Burkina Faso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guinea or draw
76%
Guinea or Burkina Faso
74%
Draw or Burkina Faso
50%

Winning margin

Guinea wins by 2+
26%
Burkina Faso wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guinea 1+ goals
79%
Guinea 2+ goals
46%
Guinea 3+ goals
20%
Burkina Faso 1+ goals
63%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
26%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Guinea (draw refunded)
68%
Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea attack 1.75 + Burkina Faso defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.55

Burkina Faso attack 0.90 + Guinea defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guinea scores more
50%
level
26%
Burkina Faso scores more
24%

Guinea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guinea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guinea vs Burkina Faso — Match Preview

Guinea face Burkina Faso on July 24, 2025 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.