Guinea-Bissau 1–1 Sierra Leone: Result & Stats

Guinea-Bissau

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sierra Leone

9/4/2025

League #29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Guinea-Bissau35%

×Draw28%

Sierra Leone37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guinea-BissauExpected goals in this matchSierra Leone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.17

Guinea-Bissau

1.13

Sierra Leone

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Guinea-Bissau

1.00

Sierra Leone

1.00

allows per match

Guinea-Bissau

1.33

Sierra Leone

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Sierra Leone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea-Bissau ↓

Sierra Leone →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guinea-Bissau or draw

63%

Guinea-Bissau or Sierra Leone

72%

Draw or Sierra Leone

65%

Winning margin

Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+

14%

Sierra Leone wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals

68%

Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals

31%

Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals

11%

Sierra Leone 1+ goals

69%

Sierra Leone 2+ goals

33%

Sierra Leone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)

49%

Sierra Leone (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guinea-Bissau at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sierra Leone away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guinea-Bissau attack 1.00 + Sierra Leone defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sierra Leone attack 1.00 + Guinea-Bissau defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guinea-Bissau scores more

35%

level

28%

Sierra Leone scores more

37%

Sierra Leone at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sierra Leone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff