Guinea-Bissau 0–1 Nigeria: Result & Stats

Guinea-Bissau

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nigeria

1/22/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Guinea-Bissau17%

×Draw26%

Nigeria57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guinea-BissauExpected goals in this matchNigeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

1.51

Guinea-Bissau

0.68

Nigeria

1.51

Nigeria creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

0.63

creates per match

1.64

1.38

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Guinea-Bissau

0.63

Nigeria

1.64

allows per match

Guinea-Bissau

1.38

Nigeria

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Nigeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guinea-Bissau ↓

Nigeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guinea-Bissau or draw

43%

Guinea-Bissau or Nigeria

74%

Draw or Nigeria

83%

Winning margin

Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+

4%

Nigeria wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals

49%

Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals

15%

Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals

3%

Nigeria 1+ goals

78%

Nigeria 2+ goals

44%

Nigeria 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)

23%

Nigeria (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guinea-Bissau at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Nigeria away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guinea-Bissau attack 0.63 + Nigeria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.68

Nigeria attack 1.64 + Guinea-Bissau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guinea-Bissau scores more

17%

level

26%

Nigeria scores more

57%

Nigeria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nigeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff