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Guimaraes vs União de Leiria — Taça de Portugal 2018

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
União de Leiria
União de Leiria
11/23/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Guimaraes24%
×Draw24%
União de Leiria52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes
1.13
União de Leiria
1.76

União de Leiria creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Guimaraes
1.56
União de Leiria
2.85

allows per match

Guimaraes
0.67
União de Leiria
0.69

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par
União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

União de Leiria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw
48%
Guimaraes or União de Leiria
76%
Draw or União de Leiria
76%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+
9%
União de Leiria wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals
68%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
31%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
11%
União de Leiria 1+ goals
83%
União de Leiria 2+ goals
52%
União de Leiria 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)
32%
União de Leiria (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.56 + União de Leiria defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.13

União de Leiria attack 2.85 + Guimaraes defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guimaraes scores more
24%
level
24%
União de Leiria scores more
52%

União de Leiria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Guimaraes 2–0 União de Leiria

Guimaraes beat União de Leiria 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.