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Guimaraes vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga 2018

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moreirense
Moreirense
11/3/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 10Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Guimaraes40%
×Draw27%
Moreirense33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes
1.30
Moreirense
1.17

Guimaraes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Guimaraes
1.13
Moreirense
1.02

allows per match

Guimaraes
1.31
Moreirense
1.48

finishing

Guimaraes+0.18scores more
Moreirense+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw
67%
Guimaraes or Moreirense
73%
Draw or Moreirense
60%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+
18%
Moreirense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals
73%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
37%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
14%
Moreirense 1+ goals
69%
Moreirense 2+ goals
33%
Moreirense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)
54%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.13 + Moreirense defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Moreirense attack 1.02 + Guimaraes defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guimaraes scores more
40%
level
27%
Moreirense scores more
33%

Guimaraes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guimaraes vs Moreirense

Guimaraes beat Moreirense 1-0 in Primeira Liga on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.