Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Guimaraes vs FK Ventspils — UEFA Europa League 2018

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
FT
6 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Ventspils
FK Ventspils
8/14/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundEstádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guimaraes73%
×Draw16%
FK Ventspils11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes
2.48
FK Ventspils
0.85

Guimaraes creates 192% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guimaraes
2.17
FK Ventspils
1.20

allows per match

Guimaraes
0.50
FK Ventspils
2.80

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par
FK Ventspils+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

FK Ventspils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw
89%
Guimaraes or FK Ventspils
84%
Draw or FK Ventspils
27%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+
50%
FK Ventspils wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals
92%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
70%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
44%
FK Ventspils 1+ goals
57%
FK Ventspils 2+ goals
21%
FK Ventspils 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)
87%
FK Ventspils (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

FK Ventspils away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 2.17 + FK Ventspils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.48

FK Ventspils attack 1.20 + Guimaraes defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Guimaraes scores more
73%
level
16%
FK Ventspils scores more
11%

Guimaraes at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guimaraes vs FK Ventspils

Guimaraes beat FK Ventspils 6-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.