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Guimaraes vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
12/19/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 6Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Guimaraes45%
×Draw24%
Fiorentina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes
1.63
Fiorentina
1.31

Guimaraes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

creates per match

Guimaraes
2.11
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

Guimaraes
0.78
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw
69%
Guimaraes or Fiorentina
76%
Draw or Fiorentina
55%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+
23%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals
80%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
48%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
22%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
73%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
38%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)
59%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 2.11 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Guimaraes defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guimaraes scores more
45%
level
24%
Fiorentina scores more
31%

Guimaraes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guimaraes vs Fiorentina

Guimaraes and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.